Yes, but if the market only looked at technical progress within...

Yes, but if the market only looked at technical progress within the company and used the IPO as it's anchor, then there's no way that the price would have ever gotten down to 30c. I'm super bullish long term, but I also realise that there are many many different games that are played on the stock market. Some are long term buy and holders like you and I. Some trade purely based on chart data.
Off the top of my head, a couple of reasons why it could break down are people freaking out about the US debt ceiling (unlikely but all hell would break loose if they actually defaulted), short term traders seeing the bearish chart signal (and either shorting or just not buying), stubbornly high inflation in the macro economy (meaning some retail holders may exit due to completely unrelated cost of living pressures), and the fact we're coming into June which means anyone who bought in the last month above the current price may wish to crystallise their loss for tax purposes. All have nothing to do with the actual progress of the company.
When playing in this space, I've found that short term traders can actually have quite a significant influence on the price direction (perhaps it's the lack of institutional investors and liquidity), and chart patterns can actually be quite reliable in the short term. It's useful to be able to see things from the perspective of people who are playing a different game to me.

All that being said, it may or may not play out. I just thought it was an interesting observation on the chart which could be worthy of discussion. Whichever way it goes, I'll continue to nibble at it for a long term hold.