Hi Slambo,
I had a long term thesis on 4dx. I realised my thesis was definitely broken after the recent 4C, which showed the true extent of ongoing paid scans, and I am not ashamed that I was quick to change my mind and sell. As I said in my post, the story was sold to investors that UM was the first pengiun jumping in the water, and more were to follow, the tech was ready for mass adoption. Hospitals are fast to move once one reputable hospital commits to new technology, so it was a powerful story. I admit I did not reasearch this deeply enough, perhaps I was blinded by the huge potential and the brilliant scanning capability, seemed like a sure winner. Or just too time poor being back at uni studying a masters.
I've certainly also been impatient many times and sold too soon when my original thesis was right. Defintiely could be the case here, but I also think if the conviction is gone you should sell, because otherwise you are vulnerable to having a bad temperament and selling in a panic when the SP is punished. I find conviction is key for me. A large investment warrants continued research and consideration, sometimes we make mistakes, I am sure prone to them, and I think the ability to change your mind and sell a position you only recently acquired is an asset and not something to be ashamed of. Even if it is a sign you researched inadequately to begin with, at least you can correct your mistake, sometimes taking a profit, sometimes a small loss.
Sometimes I do make good calls too FYI, and stick with them, I made significant investments in DSE at 11c, MAD at 3.5, XRO at 17, APT at 17 as well.. I still hold XRO and MAD, sold DSE @33c and half my APT at the take over. All similar investment sizes to 4DX.
Like I said, writing out your thoughts on a public forum forces you to comprehend them very clearly and fact check yourself thoroughly, so there is a bit of that I guess. I also feel like a lot of people are probably in the same boat as me, having invested based on the same thesis, maybe they will realise their thesis is broken as well. I definitely think some people will still be thinking of this as a junior PME, and that is just ignorant and dangerous, so I hope I enlightened so people in that respect.
Honestly as a long term holder, I think you guys should want anybody with low or fragile conviction to sell now while there is still some volume to sell into, if volume dries up and price heads slowly downwards, that's when those people will do a lot more damage to the shareprice and investor's sentiment. You're welcome...
I dont want to keep being negative, my thoughts are shared, I dont have anything else of value to add, GLTAH
(20min delay)