4m 1920FY estimate, page-9

I don't even see the point in trying to guess NPAT. All that matters is the revenue growth. Management has already told us exactly (more or less) what the EBITDA ratio will be so the revenue is the governing factor. Once you know the full year revenue, you know the NPAT within a 1% margin. Jayne is not going to surprise by having a materially lower EBITDA raito than guidance. Last year she said around 1H or 4m that full year revenue growth expected to be around 40% and it came in at 41%. She will not try and impress the market by having a higher EBITDA ratio, as it will go against what she has been trying to do with the brand development over the last year or so. The only way for her to surprise the markets positively would be to have a higher revenue growth rate than consensus.

Side note, I am expecting either very good results or some very bad news at the AGM. That is the only explanation for why none of the management has sold any shares. If there is horrible news around the corner and the SP tanked further, management would get a grilling from shareholders so they wouldn't sell to avoid backlash. The only alternative is they know great news is around the corner and the SP will for sure be materially higher than current levels. I can't think of many bad news items the management can deliver (low revenue growth is the worst I can think of) but I can certainly think of some positive news that could materially drive up the SP.