Hi Voddy, I know it can be frustrating...sometimes they give us an idea of the time frames and it blows way out. Its particularly hurtful for investors that don't have a lot of time, or perhaps have invested at higher levels and really need the money! They may have gone in and taken a position thinking that this will work in a few years and yet after 3 or 4 or whatever, we are LOWER still. How is this possible?
Investing in a bio pharma is certainly not for the feint hearted, its not for one that necessarily needs slow and steady income that gently keeps going up....its V O L A T I L E....
Wait a minute, is that a rollercoaster or PAR's last 6 months of share price...?
ok ok maybe its this then:
It can go up tremndously...it can fall and crash....we are no different, in fact we are that on steroids....WHY? Because we are pre revenue...because we are really tackling something that has NEVER been successfully broached before.
Many have tried...Tanezumab and Fasinumab are just some past candidates in my memory that have tried and failed...single targeting drugs......but the tech is totally different. We have a drug that is addressing musculoskeletal indications in not one way...in many different ways....but its so much broader than that...look at the diverse applications potentially...PAIN.....INFLAMMATION...I today cannot express to you how big these are, how many indications have this as their core symptom and how many we could actually make a difference to.
The numbers really, if you analyse it, are staggering. But this is not now...this is not tomorrow..this is not even in 4 months time....its still a number of years away where it gets big....but the excitement? Ah well....that's coming (my opinions).
Of course just because I have researched this a lot, doesn't mean that I know the exact timetables and that I know when this thing will rise like a phoenix out of the swampy muck of sub $1.00 share prices.
What I'm trying to impress upon you is that it is a long long journey. Yes some will be in awe if we attain a 100% return in a year...others want more but are willing to wait...and some are prob a mix.
It will depend on many factors as to what you as an individual want and need...I have some really big holders that never contact me...when the price slid from $2 to $1..I never got a call of panic from these guys...I ring them occasionally and they are just happy to sit and wait...and wait...and watch our story slowly unfold. Yeah some of these guys have much more patience than even I do. One held a stock called PME...he held and held....and held...
I know a lot of you like charts and graphics...here are some pics: (single left click to enlarge charts)
PME ...the single most boring stock in the known universe? From 2001 right through to 2014? Who the heck is going to hold anything this long?
Well if you did...this is what happened for the next 9 years:
it went from $1 to $68....and then the guy I know sold a little slice at $68 and bought a few other big chunks of other shares with his 'little' slice, PAR was one of them. Kinda like how our entire planet was just a little rock thrown out of a supernova at some point...! This guy is one of the humblest people I know. You see him in the street and you could never guess he has one of the biggest holdings of a few bio's in Aus.
Some have clever strategies to start getting out of some as we go higher...some unfortunately have given up.
For me, I am not only a believer but I get more confident as the months go by!!!
The research is so nutty incredible. I know a few of you have commented that they understand the sci and have every faith in it but it is the other aspects of management and execution that must follow suite. I believe that this is a dynamic company and that management know what they are doing and have the right employees in place. I do of course believe that not everything has fallen into place all the time. I cant dispute that deadlines have been missed and things have changed...sometimes markedly.
However I also think that on the other hand we are dynamic and adaptive and its going to go in our favour in the medium to longer term (my views).
All very good, what's keeping me going?
Well we are due for some sorta update to our 002 program
An alarm went off just before on the Old Mozz's phone ....tomorrow is the one year anniversary since the last patient was recruited in our pivotal program, 008.
In a few months we could have some incredible discussions with the agencies...what will come from this? There could be some really encouraging discussions and changes, it will be heavily data dependent but you really don't have to be a Biology Wizard to realise and observe the SHEER consistent data we have had so far in multiple programs over the last few (patient/long/boring?!) years...safety profile? Ditto.
This doesn't have to be you!
Deal me in....a chance of a deal, Its a fraction early perhaps (my view)...but yes, this could strike by the end of the year, we have a couple of areas where it may happen?
MPS - this program also excites me, I know how carefully the authorities look at sponsors undertaking an orphan indication. Show some decent data here along with that safety profile and then ADD the fact that we are also addressing an indication that affects juveniles, it makes for a potent mix that could transcribe into real material uplifts where our share price is concerned. Keep a careful watch on this program.
Par have learnt, they aren't going to be as liberal with dates and timings, we may just see news flashes come at us from left field...think Fast Track announcement as a prime example. Shorters and negative nellies, be on your toes, you have been warned.
Yeah - I'm very much sticking with this play...its long, it can be arduous and my friend The Anchor Man keeps suggesting to me that if I'm bored, find a suitable distraction!
PAR? As every month passes by...though it is quiet at times, like the long long years of PME.... this thing has some potential.....
(20min delay)