Good question. The best (long) answer, I think, is to do an intensive study of Wyckoff.
A shorter answer, perhaps, is to look to Jesse Livermore. Here's just a couple of quotes. From what you've just said, I'm sure you will agree with the first quote. But take note of the second one.
1. "I long ago realised that the stock market is never obvious, it is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time. My rules are often based on thinking against the grain, against human nature.
2. "Be sure to confirm your judgement before you take your full position."
I take Quote 2 to mean - be a a breakout trader. Accumulation and distribution usually occur as consolidation patterns. Don't jump the gun. Wait for a break-out from the consolidation pattern. If it breaks upwards - go long, if it breaks downwards - go short.
I thinka could write a book in answer to your question. Just remember that there are no certainties in trading - only probabilities. If the market doesn't go the way you expect - then cut your loisses.
Personally - I put a lot of faith in dynamic support and resistance, e.g., Moving Averages. I've also become a fan of Supertrend Lines (dynamic) and the Ichimoku System. And think in Multiple Time Frames.
Have a look at the Weekly Wrap I'll put up soon.
Hope that helps.
Yep - I've been around a while. I've been fiddling around with Technical Analysis since the mid-1980s and have a background in statistics from University days in the early seventies.
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