Post No 1:...

Post No 1:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=944330&msgid=5263569
Quote: He would say that it won't occur till next year as the major expansion is not complete until the end of 2009, therefore royalties from the increased production won't occur till then. Why is that so hard to understand Forbes?
Sure we should get good royalties over the next 2 quarters, but these royalties will be on current production capacity (approx 60 mil).
The announcement regarding royalties relates to the increased production capacity, therefore his guidance is correct. I believe PC has done well to minimise the volatility of the share price by short-term traders. In the long-term, the figures won't lie, and we will still get the re-rating that Biota deserves.

Current Post:
Quote:
I will assume selling price of $22, to account for donations & lower prices for certain countries. At $22 per does that equates to sales of 106 million doses.
Personally, I won't assume that GSK can actually sell all 190 million doses pa. I also assume the rotocap/rotohaler device capacity will only be available for 2 years. Therefore, I am suggesting that between 100-140million doses pa is around peak production. Fantastic if this is proved in hindsight to be conservative.

Brent, Thank you for you elaborate and very clear explanation.

Assuming your views/opinion has not change for convenience, I am confused by your mathematics and statements:

For the next 2 quarters you stated current production capacity of 60million p.a. remains. Therefore you would have estimated the maximum sales from the 1st half year from Jun 09 to 31 Dec 09 to be: 30 million (50% of 60 million p.a.)

Therefore to achieve 106 million for the full year the sales for the 2nd half year from 1 Jan 10 to 30 Jun 10 must be 76 million (106 million less 30 million) which equates to 152 million p.a. Please explain the mathematics in your statement that you are conservative in estimating 100-140 million doses p.a. sales when in fact you had used 152 million doses p.a. sales rate for the half year from Jan- June 10.

You justified Peter Cook ASX announcement as accurate and not talking down the market. Peter Cooked Statement: ”any increase in resultant royalty payments, will not effect Biota’s cash position until June 2010, at the earliest clearly misled many HC readers to believe the idiot was stating royalties will not be booked until after June 2010.