5.38 close on lse, page-13

Tbaulch,

I think the well you are referring to may have been the Bandut basin well, which was either a vertical or only a partially fracced vertical. I think that may have been back 5 years or so ago. Only flowing 40 boepd or something now, pocket change only to the company. I liked the fact that they have stuck it out in India and now have the chance to apply PROVEN technology to attempt to commercialise a new shale basin in India. Barring all previous stuff ups and false starts, the reality is that we are now only a few months away from a flow teat. This will be a company maker or breaker for sure imo.

Looking forward {if they decide to release} a low down on the fraccing crew employed and their successes or otherwise where this technology has been applied in the US shale plays. I feel lessons have been learnt {albeit slowly} and that with a US experienced crew and a new plug and perf technique employed, they can at least get to a flow test this time around. Whether they are commercial flows or not remain to be seen. Look, with the lousy crew, faulty equipment and badly managed fracc strategy last time out. they still managed to reach TD AND partially fracture 76H.

A great deal lies in having a competent fraccing strategy in place, how long is the lateral? How many fracture stimulations/stages? What quantity of sand to water? What variations of chemicals/gas/mud to use? What well spacing to employ? Not a one size fits all strategy. Some shales in the US have had markedly different results from others in the same play but using different variants of the above.

As to the current share price; Good to see such strong support in London on twice the volume as us. Today was another great day for long suffering holders, closed at its high of 10.5c. May see some weakness from here as 10c and 7c CR holders may sell to take some profit. I did not expect it to be above 10c this early in the game {be nice to go up in 0.005c multiples from now on!!} It may well run to 15c pre-spud or on successful announcement of spud.

A better guide for me is the drill 2 years ago {76H}. Share price ran to 55c. They however probably had half the amount of shares on offer then as opposed to now and they had 45% equity in the project as opposed to 30% now. So half 55c =27c. Sold off 15% of the project or a third so that makes it about 18c. However, the gas priced has doubled from $4 mscfg to $8 after April 1 2014, with almost certainty to increase to $10 in 2015 {Govt approved and implemented fixed price}.Better than the current %5.20 mscfg in the US.
So let's say 7.5% reduction in equity as a result of increase in gas prices. Makes it about 22.5c on TD being reached or stimulation completed as a comparison to 2 years ago.

GLTAH