Ive seen and read alot of posts on CTP and thought Id share my...

Ive seen and read alot of posts on CTP and thought Id share my thoughts


I last invested in CTP when it was 8cents as I saw an opportunity for a re-rating following the then capital raising as they began their work programs. I subsequently sold at 16c doubling my money and moved on as the JV program began to break down and bog down.

I now see a similar opportunity in CTP and will raise the following points.


1. The markets are in carnage mode at the moment nothing is being spared even the good old banks posted 3%-5% losses after some of them posted great profit results so with that in mind CTP's sell off is hardly surprising

That combined with the SPP at 7.5c meant that should panic and fear grip the market there would be plenty of stock flooding the market as spooked holders ran for the doors

I have used this as an opportunity to buy in at 6.5c yesterday and today.


2. The company having completed a large capital raising has 5.5cents a share in cash yes some of this is committed to the drill program but the point is if the company were liquidated today there should be at least 5c a share cash return to shareholders after costs. While this may not mean much to some I can tell you it is something that alot of investors look at


3. This is by far the biggest point so pay attention as I to have been a shareholder in the past making profitable investments on this company however it is this following reason (along with the drop) the caused me to jump back into CTP and heavily, CTP will spud the following 3 wells




****A) Ooramina-2 17th May targeting 2TCF of Gas, using a gas price of $6.50 per 1,000 cubic feet this target has an In Ground Value of $13 Billion AUD thats $13,000,000,000.

Sure that's an IGV and doesn't include development or OpEx costs but are you telling me that punters who like a good story arent going to want to have a ticket to this potential lottery? even if we give a 30% NPV figure to try factor in Cap Ex and Op Ex costs that's still potentially a $4Billion $4,000,000,000 project.



****B) Johnstone-1 15th June (soon after Ooramina-2) targeting
500Mbls of oil which using $70/bl oil and 90c AUD/USD works out to an IGV of $44.1 Billion thats $44,100,000

again I know these are IGV's but even a 20% success rate and valuing the oil at say $40/bl AUD to take into account gives a figure of $5.6Billion thats $5,600,000,000



****C) Magee-2 1st August (soon after Johnstone-1) targeting 800Bcf gas + 15Bcf Helium at $6.50/1000cf gas and $110/1000cf Helium gives an IGV of $6.8Billion thats $6,800,000,000

Again IGV I know but surely by now your starting to get the picture? Mind boggling numbers in the success case however unlikely that may be.





*****Summary*****
I suppose the point Im trying to make is that CTP are about to drill 3 very high impact exploration wells which if proven and successful have the potential in their own right to be company making.

Now I know that you cant just use an IGV for value and have no doubt that should any of these 3 wells come in CTP will most likely need to consider a farm out to an oil super major or the Chinese and may need further money but even the most negative anti CTP poster would have to admit that the potential return CTP offers from current levels is well tasty to say the least.




******Bottom line points for me are******
1. 5.5cents a share cash backed

2. About to commence a back to back 3 well very high impact drilling program success at any one of which may result in a 50c+ share price

3. The knowledge that stocks like MEO and BUY have captured the markets attention on the promise of having a 15%-20% interest in a 6Tcf-12Tcf Gas prospect which makes CTP's 100% owned 2Tcf Ooraminna look very good

4. The knowledge that stocks like KAR were nobodies until they had their first big break with a discovery and so knowing that all it takes is one large discovery to make an oil company



Now before the knockers come out and call me a ramper let me stress the following points

I am not saying CTP is the best buy of the century blue chip investment. What I am saying is that they have fallen to new lows, are now cashed up and are about to drill some very high impact wells which could either be dusters (80% chance) or company making multi billion dollar wells (20% chance using the old 1 in 5 rule)


I personally am looking at CTP as a lottery ticket good luck to all and hope my comments are appreciated and have done my best to just state facts and crunch some numbers