Don,
Even in the 60s they had sufficient seismic resolution to pick out the sort of structures CTP are targeting here. I don't think this has anything to do with better seismic - rather it's targeting areas that weren't prospective in the 60s to 80s but have become prospective with better completion techniques, better infrastructure (pipelines, processing plants & ports) and higher oil/gas prices.
We know there is gas in O-2. The probabilities are likely Monte Carlos estimating the commercial viability, which has nothing to do with seismic.
The probability calculations posted here are reasonable IMHO as long as you recognise the huge uncertainty built in to the individual "success" probability estimate.
And remember - Monte Carlos are the standard industry method of calculating Reserves estimates so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them! :)
Cheers,
Psi81
Don,Even in the 60s they had sufficient seismic resolution to...
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