Jaks,CTP thread is smoking...Probably see green on...

Jaks,

CTP thread is smoking...Probably see green on Monday...

Anyway...

"if i throw a dice 6 times am i guaranteed to roll a 6 at least once? While the odds are increased at the outset, with each unsuccessful roll the odds decrease and there is absolutely no guarantee, so that part i will have to disagree with."

Good question...

Although it is all academic now...

It should be understood that the initial probability of 6 rolls remains intact until the last dice is rolled...

Whether the same dice is rolled 6 times... Or if 6 dice are all rolled at the same time.... The probability of at least one landing on a 6 will remain the same...

If you take one dice away your changing the question.... Its a probability over 5 dice now...

You can't discount the initial roll if it misses a 6.

Even if you roll the first dice and don't get a 6 the probability for an event with 6 rolls remains intact unitil the last dice is rolled....

Similarly the probability across 3 wells remains intact until after the 3rd well is drilled.

If you drill one well and then apply probability to the remaining 2 wells you are changing the question....

CTP is drilling 3 wells not 2.....


"I can understand the probability of 71% of 1 well succeeding at the outset. Bob this is the probability of 1 in 3 being a success"

Correct.... However 71% is the probability of 1 well succeeding across the entire event.... Not just the first well...

Even if the first well fails it does not change the probability... Like rolling 6 dice at the same time will have the same result as rolling the one dice 6 times....

Remembering that I questioned Daves initial email cause i believed it did not look right... So I approached from a perspective seeking to find faults with his calculation...

Only to find it is spot on!!!

I think we are debating the wrong thing here.... The 71% figure is concrete...

The real question is how accurate are these percentages supplied by CTP???