5.5c in sight, page-4

the 3 month chart?? You do realize that up until 2 and a half weeks ago VPC was not a SAAS tech start up but a failed coal play. I love a good chart as much as the next guy but saying that VPC will fall to 5.5c because the price of coal crashed is not logical. That said I agree that what you say is not impossible. I am not blind to the descending triangle on the daily and the fact that we closed the week just above support. However I also note that on Thursday afternoon a lot of our tech start ups took a pounding all at once. Then Thursday night the US market took a beating. Some of the better techs started to recover late Friday and then the US had an absolute blinder last night. I reckon flip a coin. VPC may just as likely move up a little with the rest of the market come Monday and stagnate there until the next news. I reckon one more client sign up and it will be game on. I was up at 4 am this morning trying to compare apples with oranges to get an idea of relative value of VPC. I think the only real problem VPC has is the same problem I have when I run a half marathon.....it went too hard too soon. I looked at a few charts, 1PG, NOR and DUB. They all kind of meandered sideways for a few weeks before gaining traction. I found NOR to be an interesting comparison. Using a sheep station approximation NOR has twice as many shares as VPC. When NOR announced that annualized revenue had hit 400k the sp jumped 20% to 3c....more or less the equivalent of what VPC is at this level. When NOR announced annualized rev of 600k it shot to 6c (about 12c in VPC money) and on the 5th of Nov when NOR announced the annualized rev had jumped to 900k the SP shot to 16c (about 32c in VPC speak!!!!)

VPC must be approaching fair value by now as the SP drops and the SAAS and PPV revenues rise. A quick look back through some VPC announcements we see that in May they announced annualized rev of 120k for SAAS and PPV, then 170k in August and then in the recent investor update 200k as of end October. Since then Alcoa Australia has signed on and so has John Blake. Alcoa Australia was already a client but of the service arm of (the old) Dash Digital and have only just signed on as an SAAS client. Dunno what that will be worth but Russell stated at the talk about tech conference that AHG was worth 50k a year. they have 7,500 employees. Alcoa Australia has about 4,500 but that number may possibly dwindle in the current resources bust. Still a mining company employee probably needs a whole lot more OH&S training that a car yard employee so perhaps that one may end up being worth as much as the AHG account. I have no idea how to value John Blake. My point is though we can't be too far off a MC value that is justified by the revenue.

Don't forget that VPC has 2 arms and the total annualized rev is actually 2.3 mill. We should keep that in perspective though. What the market is looking for is that scalable blue sky rev that comes with a SAAS. The same blue sky is realistically not realizable through the services of Dash. Even Russell touched on this (with a positive spin of course) when he mentioned the revenue of Dash being able to support the blue sky of the SAAS in these early stages. It is during these early days that any potentially good company can be ruined through dilution but what VPC has that other start ups don't have is a revenue stream from their service arm to help keep them going until the SAAS is really firing. So one would think that on that basis some value needs to be attributed to the services arm of VPC. On that basis I think round about here might be fundamentally fair value. I would not rule out a chart breakdown and a short visit to 5.5c but I believe it would not be there very long if it did go there. One more client sign up and I say we wouldn't go there at all.