Yep, great summary peaceAKKI, TU. I thought PAT-SC1 was for...

Yep, great summary peaceAKKI, TU. I thought PAT-SC1 was for gastric cancer though? $17m for the company where it stands is completely beyond reason in my opinion. Multiple orphan designations, a product ready for outlicensing (SC1) and very positive results from a phase I/IIa trial, and that's the value the market places on it?

The only negative at this point in my opinion is the share price. I think all of the faithful buyers that are believers in PAB have been exhausted during the rights issue take up (and applying for top-up shares), leaving limited buying apart from the program trading going through on Chi-X, so any selling is just pushing the price down.

I agree re. RI shares, those who subscribed had every opportunity not to, so I think they'll be sticky and not be looking to exit.

If you look at the BBY presentation there was a reasonably clear timeline on what is coming, with the only real unknown being the Onyx clinical trial. In the near term I don't expect much movement, but here are the potential triggers for some positive SP movements:

1. Outlicensing deal on PAT-SC1 - This could happen at any stage.

http://www.patrys.com/product-pipeline/clinical-products/patrys-pat-sc1 shows upcoming PAT-SC1 events as "Announcement of a licensing deal". I would've thought management has been very focused on PAT-SM6 but hopefully can find time for a trip to Asia and India to market SC1, where the incidence of gastric cancer is far higher

2. Full data from PAT-SM6 - 1Q14

Whilst we've seen preliminary data from the 4th cohort, the release of the full data resulting from the clinical trial may generate additional interest

3. Further detail on Onyx investigator sponsored trial - Could occur at any stage

If I was PAB I would be pushing for Onyx to at least make a public statement regarding the upcoming trial, with further detail on clinical trial structure, dosing (is it the 6mg/kg/dose from the 4th cohort?) and timing. This is a potential negative for the SP if the trial is too far away or if the dates slip. Currently PAB timeline shows manufacturing of the GMP material for the Onyx study as being completed in 1H14, and given that they use 1Q for other items on the timeline I suspect this means 2Q, so I wouldn't expect the actual trial to commence until 2H14.

4. Placement of the RI shortfall

I think this is relatively unlikely without one of the other triggers above pushing the share price up enough to make it palatable to potential large buyers. That said, the company does have 3 months to place it and a lot can happen in that time. This would really just be an indicator of positive sentiment as the company doesn't have a really strong need for additional capital now that the Onyx trial is fully funded.

They're the main things I'll be watching for, does anyone have any big ones I've missed? In the interim I will be keeping an eye on the share price and looking for opportunities to average down.

DYOR and GLTA