New header to correct the previous one as some of the numbers...

New header to correct the previous one as some of the numbers were out

Last Thursday we saw an unknown party come on board as a substantial holder, taking 5.6% of the company at 18c per share

Under the ASX rules, we should be hearing this week who the party was and then can work out what sort of influence they are likely to have and perhaps work out what may be in motion

Unfortunate the trade didn't happen on market, as it would have had a great impact on the chart and showed up on everyone's scans - an 8.25M share trade at 18c being a 10-15% premium above market certainly would have got noticed

Normally the broker would have bought everything up to 18c and done an on market crossing - why they didn't do this ? Perhaps there was a 1-2 week settlement time frame or something similar

The key is someone has come onboard as a substantial holder at 18c

This tells me that potentially some substantial newsflow is forthcoming. It is unusual for a substantial holder to come on board out of the blue, and at such a premium

If this is the case, and they have been welcomed to the register under a mates rates deal (i.e getting them set prior on the condition they support post release), then both them and Raffles would be in a blackout period which would explain why after such a large trade, no one is soaking up stock under the issue price

You would expect if you were the party taking the $1.5M at 18c upon receiving stock, you would clean up the paltry <$40k of sells up to that price. Likewise with Raffles, had you have sold at that price, then anything under would be a bargain and strong show of support, especially when you still retain 18% of the company

It would be nothing for either Raffles or the new substantial holder to buy 500k shares at 17.5c / 18c to have the market notice the trade - they haven't yet suggests either a blackout or the trade is yet to settle

Either way, why punters are selling at 15c when a party has bought 8M+ shares at 18c just last week and only positive news has been released since (PMR bonanza grades) is a strange occurence.

Only explanation I have is a blackout period with no majors able to support, and a few smaller punters spooking

Buying opportunity here IMO as you'd expect it to bounce back to 18c on settlement of the trade or higher on material news if thats what they have been set early for