IO price steady at US$38.00mt, Dow Jones up 90 points, should be agood day today all things being equal.
Since FMG went ex-dividend price was $4.33, closed at $4.54 and retreated back to $4.42.
Considering it went ex-dividend at $4.33, it is still up 9.00 cents, which is not a bad outcome.
Waiting on Formosa deal to be approved by FIRB and planned debt reduction announcement for this stock to kick to $5.00.
Sept qtr production and revenue should be a great result taking into account AUD in July & August (has increased in last few days) and steady IO prices to give FMG an even greater boost.
With total costs at low $70mt and IO prices at $130mt since 1 July, profit and cash generated will be a record result for FMG.
Rating agencies have maintained or increased credit rating is also a big positive, considering analysts were confirming the demise of FMG just 6 months ago.
Costs decreasing significantly, IO price steady, AUD , Capex coming to an end, cash reserves increasing and planned debt reduction can only point to one thing, and that is that the SP will increase significantly IMO.
Even with a margin loan , I will continue to hold as all of the fundamentals are positive. I could be wrong but rather than trust analysis provided by the likes of Morningstar (target price of $2.20) I would rather trust my instincts and research I have done, adding also that FMG management has not disappointed to date and handled the crisis in Sept 2012 in such a manner that defied all of the critics.
If the SP movers past $4.50 and remains at this level, then I will even be more comfortable going forward.
The only thing that could derail this is a plunge in IO price to below $90mt on along term basis, to date the signs of this happening is less likely based on China's strategy for economic reform and planned infrastructure projects
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$19.76 |
Change
-0.220(1.10%) |
Mkt cap ! $60.84B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$19.66 | $19.80 | $19.20 | $191.1M | 9.763M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 4673 | $19.73 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$19.76 | 31740 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 4673 | 19.730 |
3 | 3406 | 19.700 |
3 | 70531 | 19.690 |
1 | 3000 | 19.680 |
1 | 10000 | 19.670 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.760 | 31740 | 2 |
19.780 | 1500 | 2 |
19.800 | 3814 | 4 |
19.830 | 20872 | 6 |
19.850 | 28178 | 4 |
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