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JohanHenrik

11 Posts.

21/04/21

15:36

Post #: 52625171
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Originally posted by That Fundamental Guy: ↑

To provide some clarification to the above posts. The initial PFS was completed in 2011. That was for a 20mtpa mine and also had a $2.8bn capex. The subsequent PFS in 2017 is for a 10mtpa mine and much lower capex ($1.4B from memory) and was much more detailed.

I accept that there has been some disruptions that (IMO) have been caused by the shareholders behind the JV partners. This has also caused some delays. However, I anticipate those issues will soon be behind CAP as the BVI company behind the JV partner has been put into liquidation. Therefore, JV will soon be reset with CAP owning 96% of Hawsons and new shareholders who actually want to progress the project.

I don't accept that CAP has not been progressing the project.

In the early days post original PFS they explored and confirmed options for water and power (both very important) and rail and port (a bit easier for both MGT and CAP). They have also continued to refine and de-risk the project, including some infill drilling to confirm consistency in the resource.

Perhaps more importantly, they have sufficiently tested the market with product samples. This is a key step in obtaining offtake commitments and BFS funding arrangements. For example, Mitsui had agreed to provide $5M towards funding towards the BFS and underwrite $60m of finance for construction (from memory) in order to get 2mtpa of product. That is the type of BFS funding you want as it funds the project without any dilution. I accept Mitsui pulled out due to uncertainty regarding who was going to control the board - but I will assume they will be back when the dust settles. If you read past announcements, you will see that over recent years there were a number of other interested parties when high grade iron ore was not in as high demand including another party that was about to sign but was derailed by the previous chairman. They will all still be there and I suspect lining up once the JV has been reset.

I understand your reservations, but keep an eye on this one. If not before, it will progress very quickly once the JV reset has been completed. I suspect that will happen within the next month.

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Do you have any info on the board and management, are they solid? Their pictures on the webpage somehow don't convince me...

CAP Price at posting: 4.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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