Tangiers Petroleum (TPT.ASX; $0.21/sh) Junior O&G explorer that ticks all the boxes - SPEC Buy PT $0.50/sh
Large target, shallow waters leads to attractive economics. TPT has retained a healthy 25% interest and are free carried for the first well, targeting 758MMbbl expected to be drilled by 2Q14. The well will be drilled in shallow waters (~110m). Relative to deep water drilling, this means cheaper drilling costs (~$30m vs. ~$75m deep water targets), cheaper development costs, lower discovery threshold which ultimately provides for more attractive economics.
Chasing the only regional proven play type. One of the key points that resonated with clients is that TPT are chasing the lowest risk regional play type offshore Morocco, the Jurassic Carbonates. The Tarfaya permit is located in an area where a hydrocarbon system associated with Jurassic Carbonates has already been proven by the Cap Juby discovery made by Esso in 1968. Furthermore, the Jurassic carbonate source in the Cap Juby discovery matches the Panuke field in Canada, thereby providing a geological link between Morocco and its twin basin Nova Scotia Canada where material discoveries have been made.
Un-risked upside cannot be ignored for too long. The investment thesis is relatively simple. With an un-risked upside of >50 times, we believe investors will not ignore the risk/reward proposition for too long and anticipate that in the lead up to drilling the share price will correct sharply. Cairn and Genel will kick off the 10 well drill program offshore Morocco in
With an EV of $25m the risk/reward proposition has never looked better.
Cashed up junior a rarity in this market.
We forecast TPT could have a strong cash position of $20m by next year allowing the company to pursue its stated objective of growing an African based asset portfolio.
TPT Price at posting:
21.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
