All;
From detailed analysis of the weekend shipping times, i ahve been able to conclude 5 Mins transhipps can average 44 m t pa for all parts of the year, other than cyclone season (Jan to March).
I'm calling this now: Mins will do +40 m t pa from Septmebr to Decemebr this year at Onslow.
My detail analysis and tables are below.
I hope the cabal of hedge funds clowns, Jerry StelletheOne and Ryster, really enjoy this analysis.
Thank you for allowing us to buy MIn Res, so cheap at a $14 to $20 range, when it will be + $50 stock within 1.5 years.
You have made us all very wealthy.
Airlie for carriers at 9 pm Friday 27 June. Airlie left again on Sunday at 12.20 pm. Over this time Mins only operated 4 of the 5 transhippers, and each did 2 cycles over the period, or 8 cycles all up over 39.33 hours.
This means the average transhipper cyvcle is 19.67 hours or 1.22 per day, by contrast to Mins original assumptions of 1.16 per day.
The other assumotion that is too conservative is the "lost days" over the non cyclone period. Over the last 57 days we have been monitoring it, Mins has lost 3.4 days of transhipper time to bad weather, or 6%.
Therefore, 5 transhippers operating at 1.22 cycles per day with 6% lost to bad weather is 42 m t per annum production.
There is one other big area of improvement that is currently constrained by haulage.
As you can see from the data, the average loading time per transhipper at port is 4.5 hours. I beleive this is because the transhippers are having to wait for stock from the trucks at the port. There is nothing spare in storage,
The loader goes at a rate of 8000 tonnes per hour, so can fill each transhipper in 2.5 hours. I beleive once haulgae picks up so there is spare stock, the loading times at port can therefore be reduced to 3.5 hours.
If we make this small adjustment, the transhipper cckle time per transhipper reduces to 18.6 hours, 1.29 cycles per day, equals 44.3 m tonnes of prouction per year, even after taking off 6% of production for lost days due to bad weather.
You heard it first from me, Mins will do + 40 m t per year from Septmebr to Dec.
And Mike Grey, MD at Onslow said 35 m t pa is "not at risk at all" and Onslow is just beginning to "hit its straps". In other words, 35 m t pa is the new minimum run rate, not the maximum!
I hope the cabal of clowns who are short this stock enjoy today and the week, because next week you'll be buying back Mins at +$24, and $30 by September at a minimum.
You are shorting into a stock that has returned 39% per annum since listing, good luck with that!![]()
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- 5 transhippers can do 44 m t pa, another lovely message for the cabal of clowns shorting this stock
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All;From detailed analysis of the weekend shipping times, i ahve...
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Last
$38.43 |
Change
-0.650(1.66%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.552B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$38.92 | $39.08 | $37.66 | $63.93M | 1.670M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 91 | $38.33 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$38.43 | 1482 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 6082 | 41.690 |
1 | 342 | 40.140 |
3 | 2883 | 40.110 |
2 | 450 | 39.950 |
1 | 296 | 39.750 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
37.220 | 160 | 1 |
38.000 | 3020 | 3 |
38.300 | 14 | 1 |
38.430 | 600 | 1 |
38.480 | 100 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 17/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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