5 years stockpiling at least, page-2

Nomura analysis made prior to announcement that 2 new factories would be producing Relenza (Melbourne and Scotland). So the 2008 date is way off the mark.

The current 20 million courses being produced in France will be sold into a stockpile by May 06. Meanwhile the 2 new factory production lines will be able to add at least the promised 41 million courses next year, as the GSK spokesman said the next batch from new facility (not current batch) would be available middle of next year.

This implies total production is likely to be 60 million courses or more next year alone (currently $120 M to BTA on royalty rates already released from US order).

Tamiflu supply constraints due to shortage of starting material (star anise from China) so ramp up of Tamiflu not possible in next year from existing levels.

Stockpile orders at current rates will be unmet for more than 5 years unless several more GSK factories are opened. Either way the BTA income is likely to be much larger than many have factored in. Settlement is additional.

As I said before in relation to Government spin on this issue, we are being softened up in the usual calculated fashion. There is a lot more (bad) news in the pipeline and they are just protecting their worthless derrieres.

Forget about a useable vaccine any time soon. Reports of enough to protect 900 million people being made have since been discounted due to the fact that the dosage is inadequate, a cofactor would have to be added (not even tested) and injections would need to be repeated. At best it will be a supplementary measure to assure people but may provide no protection against an eventual pandemic strain. It is all we will get though. Anti-virals will remain scarce for several years as each essential services person will be locking up at least 10 courses each so at best in the next 5 years only a few percent of the population will ever get protection from this source.