It won't be $5 again.Even a major market correction would not...

It won't be $5 again.

Even a major market correction would not see it fall that much.
Last big crash was March 2020 and FMG back then went from what about $11 to $8.
BHP went from abut $40 to $34.

Inside 3 months the market was back again.

If a crash was to happen now it would drop back to $14 then rebound pretty fast.

Can't see IO getting to $40US/T.

Its likely to level out at maybe $60US/T next year according to treasury forecasts but they can often be wrong.
I think maybe it will level out at about $70US/T and the junior miners will simply disappear as their cost price is about $80US/T
leaving the big 4 to control the IO price for some years in BHP, RIO, FMG and Vale.

We may well be in a bubble now which could burst or a market correction is on the cards but even so
FMG simply would not drop to $5.

It could only drop that much in China gets really annoyed with us and stops importing IO and that simply won't happen
due to an arms race in the region. They need steel more than ever.

China might be upset with us going nuclear subs but can't see that hurting them from buying IO.
Their mills are designed for high grade IO.

At worst China will probably go after another thing we sell to them and block that like they've done with wine and barley
along with a few other things.