$50-60 New Normal or U.S Shale Bubble?, page-5

Agreed with most of what is written above. Arguably a Conventional Oil well has an average life of about 20yrs. A Shale well by the 3rd year is almost depleted, hence the amount of wells they need to drill and frack to develop the resource…It’s fair to say that if the last batch of shale wells was drilled late 2014.... then by 2017 those wells will likely be near total depletion.

The Shale boom has increased about 5Mbd of US production since 2010, so that took about 6years for them to get it right, and now the incentive for new drilling has fallen as a result of the price crash. Particularly the rig count that BH keeps updating has fallen for Shale wells, and any recent small gains on the rig counts are likely conventional (currently economical) wells testing targets such as salt domes, in places like Louisiana.

It’s clear to me that a massive amount of Shale oil wells are presently coming off-line and will continue to do so in a domino effect fashion. With the ruthless scrapping of major O&G projects all across the globe and the US production heading back to “conventional” days, we might see a rise in the oil price sooner than expected.
If you believe on a rising oil price, then STO is an attractive bid IMO.
DYOR and GLTAH.