ATH in price ≠ ATH in ownership
With gold reaching all-time highs the default assumption for most would be that positioning is likely crowded, as it appeared to be in 2011 for example, but that is not the case.
When assessing gold ETFs as a percentage of total US ETF AUM we found their percentage share is at the fourth lowest level since inception. While past performance does not guarantee future returns, it is worth noting that the last time positioning reached these levels gold embarked on a substantial move higher with considerable support from global gold ETFs (Chart 4).
Similarly, we have found that open interest in the futures market resembles trends that we see across the ETF space; gold’s open interest is well below that of a set of futures across equities, bonds and commodities.3
Despite high prices, we currently view gold to be under owned, and unlike previous rallies this time it does not look as “toppy”.