$50 million dollar cr, page-18

Buc, if the conventional wells didnt need fracking, I could see their cost being below $3M - maybe. But with fracking it will be higher than that - I will continue to assume $3-4M per well unless otherwise announced by the company, or until operational performance improves demonstrably.

The rig - assuming the lease is indeed executed - will cost $700K per month over the 18 months. At the current rate and performance of drilling, an optimistic outcome for any conventional wells is 1 month per well - so the cost of the rig alone in that case would be $700K per well - and I include that in the $3-4M per well capex estimate.

It will not be until the end of August that we get the final picture on SOA2 imo. And until the final picture is obtained TB wont be in a position to determine whether to proceed with the next conventional well into the SOA trap. So it will be mid September imo at the earliest before we see another well started there and I will be keeping an eye out on the WOGCC site for permit applications as an indicator of that.

With all that's happened, and until operational performance demonstrates an improvement in reliability, a best case scenario is that we see another 1-2 conventional wells in Hawk Springs this year, along with the Prairie Falcon in Roosevelt, and whatever infills will be drilled at Nth Stockyard.

Capex-wise we are talking:

$4M for each SOA well
2/3 x $9M (long lateral cost is higher than short lateral) = $6M for Prairie Falcon
30% x $9M = $3M for each Nth Sstockyard infill well

You can see that $18M is not enough for 2 SOA wells, Prairie Falcon and 2 Nth stockyard infills - it will probably be enough for 3 or 4 out of 5 of the above - and thats assuming oil revenue is actually starting to cover admin costs.

The big question therefore is how much can positive progress lift the SP before a CR is required (again I assume a CR since TB has shown a distinct aversion to debt funding which imo would make much more sense at this point).

Cheers, Sharks.