$50 per share in 2017, page-37

Ocker

I have a pretty bleak picture of the world :) over the next 5 years. One of the most respected financial journalists in Europe Ambrose Evans-Pritchard sees massive social disruption leading to geo political stability in the weaker democracies. Similiar deflationary periods in hisotry have bought us the French and Russian revolutions. These are not throw aways lines of doom and gloom but relfections on when similiar financial physics occurred in history and drawing parallels with recent events

Here is an interview with Ambrose a few days ago

http://www.mcalvany.com/podcast/?p=62

In this context lets look at the risks involved in Offshoring to India, in real terms its the stability of the country we are talking about not whether they employ their directly or indirectly. The reality of many of these situations is that a mixture of both local employees and subcontractors will take provide ANZ a blended service.

Right next door to India is Pakistan, the Taliban is not only winning the war in Afghanistan but they are slowly taking over Pakistan, many believe that India is the Taliban's main target

http://www.onlinepakistannews.com/india-news/1277-123-taliban%E2%80%99s-main-target-is-india.html

The combined effect of Ambrose's global scenario and Pakistan's looming threat could have India in a destabilized situation with a few short years.

Yes they have been doing it for years but they have limited their exposure to lower level skills , now they plan to role the dice on mission critical systems because they can arbitrage cheap Indian labour to replace the labour in their key home markets. As we evolve into this the only thing ANZ about ANZ will be the folks at the branches.

Its only a political judgment on my part, but IMO the tide is turning against creating even more risk by sending stuff to areas that could be geo politically delicate or even disaster prone. Its also high risk as the tide turns against offshoring, the naivety that thinks we enrich our economy by sending our skilled jobs overseas while those companies still expect to serve the abandoned countries primary market is breath taking. You watch how popular it gets when unemployment hits somewhere between 10-15% and Pakistan / India hover on the brink of war.

As to becoming a super regional bank it hasnt got the capital , Smith has admitted those plans are on hold, sure he can prepare for it not but he hasnt got the ability to make any major acquisitions, nor does he have the experience. They cant manage risk in Australia let alone another country.

Staff morale in management is what I would term extremely concerned and fearful.

Unaffordable is open to debate? Where have more private debt to income than the start of the great depression and its debatable? Whats debatable?

Lets have the debate you lead off? :)