Thanks Al,agree with your your approach re NPVim just curious as...

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Ashes86

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25/02/19

15:22

Post #: 37558563
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Originally posted by Al99: ↑

ashe

here is how I approach it.

i have a pretty good feel for the value of the project. In the success case, i can broadly estimate timing, reserves, capex and opex etc for the gas project and come up with an npv.

I can then estimate the dilution, via farmout or CR that will need to occur and it gives me a number.

If if they choose the gas project I am happy with that number. If they choose to go to fertiliser, which I believe they will, it has to give a better IRR than the gas project ( or presumably they won’t do it) and I am still happy with the original number.

i don’t believe they can do fertiliser and gas project at 50 PJ (the advert says up to 50PJ, hint hint). They don’t have enough gas for that.

I hope this helps.

BTW, I don’t think the reserves are due ST. They said by the end of the month, and it could take another 3-4 weeks. If you are waiting for it now, you may be dissspointed. Just IMHO.

AL

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Thanks Al,

agree with your your approach re NPV

im just curious as to how the certifier approaches the upgrade - given the commentary in the appendices of the latest corporate announcement as per my post this Morning

if upgrade is only to 1000PJ you are spot on, if it’s more than they can run both revenue streams simultaneously- but perhaps shorter project life

LCK Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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