50% retracement..., page-2

Hi Trish

I think it is too early to tell.

I know many people put some faith in fib numbers, but I am not in that camp. I find it is pretty reliable to chart the momentum and watch the volume.

I put this chart up earlier on the old[new] HC.

That momentum is VERY strongly negative. It is going to take some mighty reversal of sentiment to pull that up. That said there is some good news. The volume is steadily decreasing .... so that means fewer and fewer people are joining in on the selling.

There are still plenty of unknowns to contend with. This corporate bond issue has unleashed nearly 60 mill shares available for short selling. It remains to be seen how they might be used [abused?].

For instance, if the SP continues to fall, when the bonds start trading on the SGX they will trade at a steep discount to the issue price. I can see it being very attractive to the short sellers to buy those discounted bonds [and HA HA HA .... using the funds they have raised by shorting LNC in the first place]. It gives them a known maximum risk if they can keep those in their back pocket. [not to mention the effective yield is that much better into the bargain]

This is the sort of thing that bothers me when I complain that Linc has lost sovereign control of its scrip. The above example is only one of several ways I can imagine how the LNC SP can be manipulated by the bond holders at our expense [for the next 2 years :-( ].

I repurchased some of my holding today ... but not because I think this is over. It is purely a risk management thing. If it continues to be bad I will sell again and wait it out if necessary.

I know I am paranoid ... what I do not know is am I paranoid enough.

When the BLUE line is above the RED line that is positive momentum. The dotted blue line is 25 period volume and the dotted RED line is 10 period volume