50% retracement..., page-3

To add to the above .... I have realised that in posting this, in my mind, I am connecting it to the earlier post on the old HC which many people may not have read.

To clearly understand my sentiment:-

I am not suggesting that Linc is under a massive short attack at the moment .... in fact the evidence suggests otherwise.

The reported gross short sales so far have not been significantly greater than LNC is used to seeing.

Thursday [the big sell off] gross shorts sales about 6.5 million ... total volume 23 million. Since then... on each day the gross short sales have been about 1.75 million.

The available number for the outstanding short position is for Thursday 28 which gives a figure of a bit over 16 million which is an increase of about 2 million shorts. On those figures the short selling has not been aggressive [given the context] and it appears to have been mainly a case of sell and cover on the same day.

Most of the selling appears to be from holders. Pretty understandable from the way I see it. I for one was spooked by the massive drop.

I went through the last episode, which. at that time, was an attack by short selling. I have vivid memories of watching the price fall. I held my shares throughout because I just could not believe it. In fact I bought several times [well before it bottomed] because all I could see was the value. This time around though I think, like me, there are those who have taken some protective action and sold. There must be others who got spooked and just exited.

So the above should been seen in this context. I, personally, have begun the process of re-establishing my position in Linc ... because I think this has been a panic sell, far more than it has been an attack from short sellers.

However, if the panic continues, I will act according to the dominant trend, and, if that turns out to be further relentless selling then I will do likewise and wait for the panic to stop.

My comments about the bond holders, however, also come into my calculations. It is too early to tell if they will be a benign factor in Linc's share trading, or not. This selling is good for them if they have plans to manipulate the SP. If they are genuine investors then the plunge in Linc's share price will agitate them as much as it does the holders of the scrip.

The CR [via the corporate bond] came out of the blue and it was a shock. Linc management have not handled the PR of this at all well in terms of having a bit of foresight.

So ... I have no idea what the price is going to do on Monday [or next week]. Personally, I did well to sell early and that puts me in the position of having now an option to buy some back and hedge my earlier sell decision.

Because it is clear, to me, that the selling is mainly coming from holders and not the bond holders, I am a little more comfortable today with the action, by Linc, to raise money this way. Going forward though, I will trade and buy Linc with an increased caution because the bond raising has created a new set of conditions.

So I hope that puts my previous post in context. I was sound asleep and then woke when I realised that my previous post might convey a completely wrong impression when read separately from the post I put up on the now defunct HC.

[All of those previous posts from the last few days might not transfer to this platform and so could be lost to us.]

I certainly do not want to add to the panic ... I am just putting up my thoughts. I get it wrong plenty of times.