500% upside v 50% downside

It's getting very close now and I'm trying to put everything into perspective. I'm no expert so comments very much welcome.

From what I can gather if there's a commercial gas find at New Seaclem 1 of let's say 2TCF (conservative) than Bounty's share price would be around 50 cents + ??? If the well is a duster I couldn't see Bounty less than 5 cents especially since they have the 2nd drill location identified and funded from the rights issue??? You'd be crazy to sell at 11 cents pre spud unless you're a ST trader.

It seems the risk / reward for Bounty is much more balanced compared to the other highly priced PEP 11 stocks which still have massive upside, but enormous downside risk aswell. This may bring plenty of late money Bountys way at current levels?

On another note It's hard to understand what the true probability of success is. ?The MMR preso states it's roughly 19%, however after the independent geologists upgraded permit to 13.2 TCF and said gas was "likely" ?people said the POS was more like 50%. ?Now after the RPS report and statements such as gas "highly likely" people are saying POS is 80+%.

Don't get me wrong the 50% & 80% POS figures sound great, but where did they come from management or the geologists???. It seems very high for a offshore drill? MEO's current drill is only 50% POS and in the proven NWS area.

Thanks in advance.