There are different opinions around which state it higher than that but at least they are not promising the world because we all know what happens then if nothing comes up.
I would tend to think in the exploration world most would sit around the 40-50% mark which I tend to believe PEP would sit at. I doubt any company would spend so much time and effort to only have a 19% chance when this is their only money maker (no other projects)
It is in the hands of the gas gods now.
There are different opinions around which state it higher than...
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