Interesting opinion regarding GDY. My feeling would be that its unfortunate that they got so hyped in 2007. Origin have been somewhat of a martyr for the geothermal industry in Australia, although I'm sure they wouldn't see themselves that way.
PTR is well situated to learn from GDY. I'm confident in their management and heartened by the fact that the government seems more aware now of the disadvantages of REDP grants being paid only after the capital for the works has been raised. The support from PTR is, in my opinion, a major selling point for PTR, similar to the working relationship between PAX and the Bakrie group in Indonesia.
If PTR demonstrates EGS in Australia, it will have huge ramifications for the industry, and potentially the environment.
If PTR manages to develop even 20% of Australian geothermal by 2050, and we take a more conservative estimate of 1500MW (by 2050), that would be 300MW with very low ongoing costs for 30+ years with a far bigger development pipeline than is possible with wind, for example.
If the learning-by-doing and scale efficiencies are anywhere near like what we've seen in Solar and Wind, then the important figure is total MW generating in the world. My thesis isn't trying to predict these kind of cost curves, so i don't know for certain what it means for geothermal, but its a fairly sure bet that the elite companies around the world than manage to de-risk the EGS technology will be well placed to become very profitable in the long term.
PTR Price at posting:
9.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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