Hi (Biscuit270),"Any number of things could hold this project...

Hi (Biscuit270),

"Any number of things could hold this project up, and with a production date at least 2 years away, the amount of new iron ore mines coming on stream could lower the profit margin before it even gets off the ground."

Not a worry...and

0.50c is a minimum, you need to think of a conservative range of $0.70 - $0.90 in 3 months time (or less).

And remember, SCE and my SDL valuations are not based on spot prices, but using a very conservative FOB price of DSO and Concentrate/Pellets, which are US$63.12/t and US$66.30/t respectively, so we are fairly covered with the worst scenarios.

Considering a different angle, and using the above FOB price for the Base case scenario, SP could reach the range of $1.30-$1.74, for projections using models 30Mtpa to 50Mtpa, and 30Mtpa to 70Mtpa, this is quite realistic considering Mbalam project could target above 100Mtpa (re. last SDL AGM presentation, Nov 2010).

Also SDL will grab extra revenues from other explorers/deposits in the region as it will own, control and operate a fully integrated mine-rail-port project.

Large scale (top 10 Iron ore producer), first mover of emerging iron ore province, and future low cost producer (with potential more DSO to come) will make SDL a low risk profile in long run.

SDL Potential Growth (Sept 2010)
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1255824&msgno=5715965#5715965

Merry Xmas everyone.

Cheers,
Bigstar