Blacks,here is my take on why it wont see sub 30c again:1. VBA...

Blacks,

here is my take on why it wont see sub 30c again:

1. VBA have a collar in place on the oil price. For every US$1 fall in price of oil below US$112 (to a max of US$90) they make $6m. That's approx $120m profit to offset.

2. As Macquarie pointed out a few weeks ago, they estimate approx 75% of the TOL selling has been completed.

3. Macquarie has a base value on their fleet at 60c per share.
I have noticed that the lowest price target was Goldman Sachs at 77c recently. Most seem to be around 90c based upon a much higher oil price.

4. Rex (singapore) accumulating stock at the moment - could we see some corporate activity?

5. 69% hedged at US$0.89 which is more than acceptable. No group hedges 100% as the risk is too great.

So while VBA will not be immune to a selloff in markets (which incidentally I believe we will are sure to see), I just cannot see them dropping below 30c again.