50c possible somewhere down the track, page-2

Whilst I know this post is not meant to be misleading & was posted for all the right reasons, posts like this can cause some harm with potential educated investors. Most educated investors would know applying a P/E ratio of 7 to a assumed mine life of 7 years is not logical, because at end of 7 years there is nothing left. P/E analysis is based on the ability to continue to generate cashflow year in & out, not just for 7 years. Discounted cashflow models are far more appropriate, due to the nature of the cashflows with mining companies.
AAR requires one DCF model based on assumed gold reserves & productions at Mandilla (could only be a conservative estimate on known reserve, given we don't know upside yet) & another DCF model based around Koongie. By combining both with various assumptions on metal prices & production costs discounted at an appropriate discount rate we then have some real figures to apply. Whilst I am not going to supply such a model because I have done my own very rough calculations in my head, it is worth learning how to set up a good Excel spreadsheet with all the relevant factors such as production levels, grades,prices, costs, discount rate, exchange rate. Once you have such a model, can apply to nearly any mining project to identify its true value.
Please take the above comments in a positive way as the more you are prepared to learn, the more successful not only your modelling but your investing.
Unfortunately, the current market has produced a lot of one line expert posters who will pay the price for their inexperience in identifying what is real value from hype.
Regards
Buffett
Good luck to all holders