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16/06/16
07:33
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Originally posted by AnDy62
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I mentioned a while ago why I thought this could be a 50c stock if management delivers and gold price holds around current levels. Now to show this wasn't pulled out of thin air, my reasoning is as follows:
From recent investor preso:
CY2016 prod target: 145-160k
AISC: $US 715-815.
Now let's be conservative and say 150k production at $815 cost.
Current margin = $(1280-815)*150k
= $465 * 150k ounces
= $69.75m
This profit before tax, likely there would be deductions but conservatively still we assume 30% tax.
NPAT = $48.8m
Market cap = $359m
Forward PE = 7.4
Now if BDR hits these conservative assumptions, SP currently is far from expensive.
Arguably, if gold continues higher (which I personally think it will), a PE of double could be justified, ergo a SP well north of 60c even assuming current margins.
Know there's somes ifs/buts there but I think this one of the better value goldies out there, high risk/reward imo
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You may still be bullish. 140koz would be "conservative", and the PoG is going to have to get a roll on to average $1280 for the year.....last qtr was $1182 from memory, and the qtr before had to be even lower.