50c target price

this is from ORd Minnet today

3rd Earnings Upgrade Since April...

Industrea Limited (IDL) has announced that it has secured a A$30m per annum contract with Cockatoo Coal (ASX: COK) for the supply of mining equipment, personnel and a range of services for the Baralaba Coal Mine.
After a series of 12 incremental contract wins in the coal product businesses which lead Ord Minnett (OM) to make small FY10 earnings upgrades in April (4.6%) and early July (4.8%) this win by Huddy's has a major impact with OM upgrading its FY10 estimates by 23.5% to an Adjusted NPAT of $42.5m.
After staring down the barrel of a possible 30% earnings fall in FY10 post the loss of Huddy's single largest and highest margin contract at Handlebar Hill (Xstrata) in January 2009, IDL have, in just six short months and through a very testing period, made what has been a herculean recovery.
The combined product contract wins along with Huddy's wins at Mt Thorley Warkworth (RIO) in the Hunter Valley and now at Baralaba (COK) in QLD have effectively replaced the lost revenue from Xstrata.
Additionally, with the potential for expansions at both Mt Thorley & Baralaba, the potential for new Huddy's contracts and with the product businesses continuing to growth strongly (particularly in China) there is considerable scope for IDL's earnings to be further upgraded over the coming months.
With FY09 done and dusted OM expects that IDL has comfortably achieved its revised (post Handlebar Hill) guidance of $42-$47m in adjusted net profit after tax (OM $44.6m) with the audited results due out on August 20.
Ord Minnett's DCF valuation increases to $0.50 per share (WACC 13.7%).
At $0.305 IDL is trading on an FY10 PE of just 5.6x which is a 55% discount to the broader market. OM currently rates IDL as a standout BUY in the sector and fully expects that this discount will be significantly eroded over the next few months as the market gains confidence in the FY10 numbers.