55c...what the, page-9

Mick76,

The thing I see about AGO is this. Right now all we have are dreams and assurances from management that they will be producing iron ore by date X. Well, as of earlier in the year, date X was last week. Now its December.

We had a massively ramping Merril Lynch write-up on AGO claiming it should be worth $6. It came out 2 months after ML bought $100M of AGO for $2 and saw it go to $4. So the ML Platinum investors made 100% in 3 months, and now they don't care.

AGO put out a graph at Diggers, and similar to Colin Barnett's costings of the great canal from the Kimberley, its a great graph, showing 18Mtpa sales in 2012. But right now - 0tpa, $0 revenue, and the maths don't add up. They don't have the resources to support that production, they don't have the reserves to get past year two, they don't have the infrastructure in place because the EPA submission got passion-killed by flower-lovers at the vinegar stroke, and the market is kaput.

People want certainty. CFE has very little, AGO might be the market darling and have its ducks, but it hasn't got them lined up yet and the third-party and in-house justifications for where companies should be are generally simplistic, biased, and not very well argued. Its almost like companies are saying "18Mtpa in 3 years. Trust us."