TI1 tombador iron limited

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One thing I should have added, was that from experience with...

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redned71

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16/01/21

15:23

Post #: 50217142
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Originally posted by redned71: ↑

G’day blue.
I did look at FEX when it was mentioned here a while back, I think when 21c, now 28c.
Looks like a fairly reasonable comparison and on the surface, not so good news for us.
FEX have 433m fpo’s, but I always include ALL possible shares, so that adds 97.5m performance shares and 39.3m options (0.08, so they will all be exercised). Grand total 570m & at current 0.28 gives market cap of $160m. Only suggesting EBITDA $16.4m based on A$111/t, c/ w $170/t spot. But we both get the lift to spot. They used A$0.70, so current higher means lower profit.
C1 cash cost A$76.86, with 56.3% freight and 12.1% port costs. If we get sale at mine gate, be interesting to compare. But they’ll obviously deduct freight costs for sale at mine gate. It’s more avoiding the potential local interference, I like about mine gate sales.
Not sure of current production. They say they’re gradually increasing to that 1.25mtpa rate.
No beneficiation required. Same as us. 64%, we have 67%. So we will get a slightly higher price. Not sure how much. But they end up 1.25t/year, vs our 1.0.

So on paper, we’re probably very close. So when we get into production, we can expect around that $160m market cap, which disappointingly for us means share price of only 8.2c. We have 1,861m fpo’s, 20m options & 75m performance rights for 1,956m shares all up.
BUT, what we don’t know is our cash cost and final selling price. Plus they have stated dividends are to be paid. That will significantly improve share price, but not sure how much until we get there.
Sobering numbers. Hopefully FEX will also continue to be rerated up, as it achieves its 1.25mtpa. I’ll be closely watching it’s price and announcements as we go.

Unless someone can find a hole in my numbers, I’m not sure there’s a whole lot more to come until we get into production and have full costs and an indication of how much dividend will be paid.

Thanks for raising it blue. I may have been a bit optimistic in my assessment. But we’ll have to see how FEX goes. It will be a great leading indicator for us.
Cheers,
Ned.

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One thing I should have added, was that from experience with emerging juniors like OXR, AOE, etc in the old days, the market did take a very long time to give full value to these juniors. It only came after they had gone into full production and demonstrated that it was sustainable. That means the wait for the much higher prices, might be longer than we expect.
cheers,
ned.

TI1 Price at posting: 7.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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