TI1 tombador iron limited

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Hi Ned Good analysis on FEX the only things i would point out...

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rookstar

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23/01/21

12:06

Post #: 50396054
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Originally posted by redned71 ↑

G’day blue.
I did look at FEX when it was mentioned here a while back, I think when 21c, now 28c.
Looks like a fairly reasonable comparison and on the surface, not so good news for us.
FEX have 433m fpo’s, but I always include ALL possible shares, so that adds 97.5m performance shares and 39.3m options (0.08, so they will all be exercised). Grand total 570m & at current 0.28 gives market cap of $160m. Only suggesting EBITDA $16.4m based on A$111/t, c/ w $170/t spot. But we both get the lift to spot. They used A$0.70, so current higher means lower profit.
C1 cash cost A$76.86, with 56.3% freight and 12.1% port costs. If we get sale at mine gate, be interesting to compare. But they’ll obviously deduct freight costs for sale at mine gate. It’s more avoiding the potential local interference, I like about mine gate sales.
Not sure of current production. They say they’re gradually increasing to that 1.25mtpa rate.
No beneficiation required. Same as us. 64%, we have 67%. So we will get a slightly higher price. Not sure how much. But they end up 1.25t/year, vs our 1.0.

So on paper, we’re probably very close. So when we get into production, we can expect around that $160m market cap, which disappointingly for us means share price of only 8.2c. We have 1,861m fpo’s, 20m options & 75m performance rights for 1,956m shares all up.
BUT, what we don’t know is our cash cost and final selling price. Plus they have stated dividends are to be paid. That will significantly improve share price, but not sure how much until we get there.
Sobering numbers. Hopefully FEX will also continue to be rerated up, as it achieves its 1.25mtpa. I’ll be closely watching it’s price and announcements as we go.

Unless someone can find a hole in my numbers, I’m not sure there’s a whole lot more to come until we get into production and have full costs and an indication of how much dividend will be paid.

Thanks for raising it blue. I may have been a bit optimistic in my assessment. But we’ll have to see how FEX goes. It will be a great leading indicator for us.
Cheers,
Ned.

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Hi Ned

Good analysis on FEX the only things i would point out would be, the dmt numbers are in USD amount, the NPV and EBITDA are both in AUD.

There is another bonus for you guys being in the higher 65% ore grade brocket which are much higher prices.

Additionally royalties in brazil are considerably less than W.A. state governments 7.5% per tonne.

Combine those 2 and the earning should be much higher than FEX.

i too look at all opitions/performance shares that are in the pipeline.

Good analysis though and im currently reading more about TI1, so not quite a buyer yet, but am leaning towards it.

I am a holder of FEX too.

TI1 Price at posting: 9.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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1 Great analysis

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Hi Ned Good analysis on FEX the only things i would point out...

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