@cevatt you have been generally very bullish in your commentary, but you also have not been wrong. You called 5c a few weeks ago and you were right. I think you're right again with 5c tomorrow and close to 7c after the next announcement next week.
To those wondering if the good news has been factored in, i think in this case no and we are not at fair value yet. Due to the risk, debts, i/o price etc this stock has been well undervalued, the PE close to 1. As these risks are falling away the price has swiftly but also steadily increased, and with each piece of news (as we will get next week) takes a jump further toward where it should be.
IMO if they can continue to deal with the forward risks then this co should be valued at 10-15c. There are many great FA posts by other posters that detail all the analysis that supports this. Because it is re-rating it won't take long to get there - AGO will be one of the big trades of 2017 and that rerate is starting now. Yes we've commenced but i think still at last 1 bag to go, more on the options which I believe they will do everything possible to get the cash injection from, and as soon as possible.
Even if the IO price does not stay up here for long, I think we may also have some forex moves that work in our favour and keep our revenue in AUD more stable. It certainly seems like there is major infrastructure spending to come by both China and USA ahead which will only help to keep things buoyant. We are still nowhere near the highs of the IO boom. Yes the price has come up a lot in 2016, but that was from the very depths. Its easy to increase a big % on something that is already small.
IMO I agree we will see 5c on Monday and 6-7c next week on the announcement. Even this is still undervalued based on FA. On TA the chart is forming a nice pennant that will break out on news with a measured target of 7c.
For the options, OOA is currently well ahead, but I don't think OO vs OOA matters as they will both be in the money before June (IMO heads will get to 10c). At a 7c heads price according to Black Scholes Model the oppies should be valued at 1.6c - i'll be topping up on my last parcel of OO early Monday morning as they are nearly 1/2 the price and can buy significantly more for the same amount of $ hence upping the leverage. Looking forward to collecting my bags.
I'm aware this is all positive positive, but thats how i see this stock as it currently stands on a FA and TA basis. It is quite simply hugely undervalued but has significant headwinds behind it, and the factors that were keeping the price down namely risk and debt holders are no longer an issue and becoming more so by the day.
Good luck AGO holders - current and those considering jumping on board. Hope everyone makes $$ and enjoys so we can enjoy the prosperity from our natural resources. Happy Australia Day indeed