5EA 4.65% 22.5¢ 5e advanced materials inc.

In 2 years of watching 5EA this has to be the most intelligent...

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    In 2 years of watching 5EA this has to be the most intelligent post on 5EA HC I've read well done to you sir .......

    1) In this whole time I did not know that they actually went ahead with SSF LCE this will make it somewhat interesting and from an overall economics perspective does change the dynamic somewhat.

    2) just a pet peeve but it's a SDP (sample demonstration plant) not a SSF I don't know why they've decided to divert from others here .....

    3) $70million overall CAPEX is actually quite frugal believe it or not IMHO & $390million for further all in CAPEX is much the same and in-line with other prospects I'm looking at atm .

    4) 2026 BA price for casts of $1726 a short ton are very good forecasts one only has to follow RIO to know the actual and it's very close
    to that now .

    5) I'm sorry but the forecast LCE TG forecast of $30,316 per sort ton for me is "pipe dream" the long term forecast for LCE BG which is far more pure and harder to create is $20,000 per metric tonne so this would equate to around $10,000 per short tonne of LCE TG in addition the 2026 timeline for LCE production puts 5EA LCE TG production right smack band in the forecasted start of the price recovery so I would expect a further discount on $10,000 to start possibly $8000 or less .

    6) for me it all hinges on qualifying the products and OTAs for both disciplines but from an economics perspective your almost thinking they need LCE to shine earlier than 2026 to make it to any true EBITDA VALUATIONS .

    7) one last point it's a race to get a piece of the supply chain pie despite 5EAs marketing their other many other players in the US LCE and BA space foaming at the mouth watching the 2 markets and in particular RIOs metrics on BA .

    I will be watching and TBH some others I'm watching based in the US are a little ahead of 5EA also on many fronts larger LCE resources larger BA resources qualification processes and sampling to premium buyers are well underway and moving to final stages so it's no "given@ that 5EA even with their investment will make it .

    Good banter though much appreciated

    Warmest Regards TT
 
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