5thJanuary 2024
Friday
On Friday, January 5th, 2024,significant economic data releases are expected from both Canada and the UnitedStates. Canada is set to announce its latest figures for Employment Change andthe Unemployment Rate. Concurrently, the United States will be releasing aseries of key reports including Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month,Non-Farm Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate, and the ISM Services PMI,all of which are pivotal indicators of the economic landscape.
CAD –Employment Change
Job creation, a leading indicator of consumer spending that forms a major part of overall economic activity, represents crucial economic data typically released soon after the month concludes. The significance of this data, combined with its prompt release, often results in substantial impacts on the market.
In a noteworthy economic development, Canada experienced a robust growth in its labor market in November 2023, with the addition of 24.90 thousand jobs. This recent increase aligns with the country's long-standing trend since 1976, which has seen an average monthly employment change of approximately 18.60 thousand. Historically, Canada's job market hit its peak in June 2020 with an extraordinary surge of 1035.80 thousand jobs, a stark contrast to the record drop of -1991.40 thousand jobs in April 2020.
The forecast for the upcoming Employment Change indicates an expectation of 13,200, which is lower than the previous figure of 24,900.
The forthcoming Employment Change data is scheduled to be released at 1:30 PM GMT on January 5th, 2024.
The last time, the Canadian Employment Change was announced on the 1st of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (CADJPY M5) below:
CAD -Unemployment Rate
While often considered a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is a crucial measure of overall economic health, as it is closely linked to consumer spending, which in turn is significantly influenced by labor market conditions.
In November 2023, Canada's unemployment rate climbed to 5.8%, a slight increase from 5.7% the previous month and matching market predictions. This marked the highest rate since January 2022, with the number of unemployed rising by 11,000 to 1.24 million. Concurrently, employment figures improved with 24,900 new jobs, bringing the total to 20.31 million and exceeding expectations of a 15,000 job increase. The labor force also expanded by 36,000 to 21.55 million. Since April 2023, the unemployment rate has cumulatively risen by 0.8 percentage points, significantly affecting younger workers. Youth unemployment (ages 15-24) jumped by 2.0 percentage points to 11.6% from April to November. In the same period, the rate for those aged 25-54 increased modestly by 0.6 percentage points to 4.9%, and the rate for individuals 55 and older rose by 0.7 percentage points to 4.6%.
TL;DR
Metric
Value
1 Unemployment Rate (Nov 2023)
5.8%
2 Change in Unemployed (Nov 2023)
+11,000 to 1.24 million
3 Total Employment (Nov 2023)
20.31 million
4 Change in Employment (Nov 2023)
+24,900
5 Total Labor Force (Nov 2023)
21.55 million
6 Unemployment Rate Change since April 2023
+0.8 percentage points
7 Youth Unemployment Rate Change (April-Nov 2023)
+2.0 percentage points to 11.6%
8 Unemployment Rate Ages 25-54 Change (April-Nov 2023)
+0.6 percentage points to 4.9%
9 Unemployment Rate Ages 55+ Change (April-Nov 2023)
+0.7 percentage points to 4.6%
The forecast for the upcoming Unemployment Rate suggests a slight uptick, expecting it to rise to 5.9% from the previous figure of 5.8%.The forthcoming Unemployment Rate is scheduled to be released at 1:30 PM GMT on January 5th, 2024.
The last time, the Canadian Unemployment Rate was announced on the 1st of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (CADJPY M5) below:
USD - AverageHourly Earnings m/m
As a leading indicator of consumer inflation, higher labor costs incurred by businesses are typically passed on to consumers, reflecting in increased prices for goods and services.
In November 2023, US private nonfarm employees saw their average hourly earnings increase by 12 cents or 0.4%, reaching $34.10, surpassing the previous month's 0.2% rise and the anticipated 0.3% increase. This growth represented the most substantial wage increase in four months. Similarly, hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees also rose by 12 cents or 0.4%, to $29.30. Year-over-year, average hourly earnings in November experienced a 4% increase, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month and in line with market expectations.
TL;DR
Metric
Value
1 Average Hourly Earnings (Private Nonfarm Employees, Nov 2023)
$34.10
2 Monthly Earnings Growth (Nov 2023)
0.4% (12 cents increase)
3 Previous Month's Earnings Growth
0.2%
4 Anticipated Earnings Growth
0.3%
5 Hourly Earnings (Private-Sector Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Nov 2023)
$29.30 (0.4% increase)
6 Year-Over-Year Earnings Growth (Nov 2023)
4%
The forecast for the upcoming AverageHourly Earnings m/m indicates a slight decrease, with expectations set at 0.3%, down from the previous rate of 0.4%.
The upcoming release of the AverageHourly Earnings m/m is scheduled for 1:30 PM GMT on January 5th, 2024.
The last time, the US AverageHourly Earnings m/m was announced on the 8th of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M5) below:
USD - Non-FarmEmployment Change
Job creation, as a key leading indicator of consumer spending, plays a major role in overall economic activity. This crucial economic data, typically released soon after the month's end, holds significant weight due to its importance and timely release, often leading to substantial impacts on the market.
In November 2023, the US job market experienced notable growth with the creation of 199,000 jobs, exceeding the 150,000 added in October and surpassing forecasts of a 180,000 increase. Despite this, the figure was below the average monthly gain of 240,000 jobs observed over the previous year, suggesting a slowdown in job market expansion. The healthcare sector was a major contributor, adding 77,000 positions, especially in ambulatory healthcare services (+36,000), hospitals (+24,000), and nursing/residential care facilities (+17,000). Government employment also saw a rise of 49,000 jobs, with local and state governments contributing 32,000 and 17,000 jobs, respectively. Manufacturing jobs grew by 28,000, slightly missing expectations but showing recovery post the UAW strike, notably in the automobile sector. However, the retail trade sector faced a setback, shedding 38,000 jobs.
TL;DR
Metric
Value
1 Total Jobs Added (Nov 2023)
199,000
2 Jobs Added (Oct 2023)
150,000
3 Forecasted Job Increase (Nov 2023)
180,000
4 Average Monthly Job Gain (Previous Year)
240,000
5 Health Care Sector Jobs Added
77,000 (Health Care)
6 Government Employment Increase
49,000 (Government)
7 Manufacturing Jobs Growth
28,000 (Manufacturing)
8 Retail Trade Sector Jobs Change
-38,000 (Retail Trade)
The forecast for the upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change suggests an expectation of 158,000 jobs, which is lower than the previous figure of 199,000 jobs.
The upcoming release of the Non-Farm Employment Changedata is scheduled for 1:30 PM GMT on January 5th, 2024.
The last time, the US Non-Farm Employment Change was announced on the 8th December, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M5) below:
USD -Unemployment Rate
While typically considered a lagging indicator, the count of unemployed individuals serves as a crucial gauge of overall economic well-being due to its strong correlation with consumer spending, a key factor in labor-market conditions. Furthermore, unemployment holds significant importance for policymakers tasked with guiding the nation's monetary policy.
In November 2023, the US unemployment rate had dropped to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in the preceding month, reaching its lowest level since July and defying expectations that it would hold steady at 3.9%. This development represented a modest reversal from the nearly two-year peak seen in October, countering the recent trend of a cooling labor market in the US. The total number of unemployed persons had decreased by 215,000 to 6.291 million, whereas the number of employed individuals had surged by 757,000 to 161.969 million. This decrease in unemployment had occurred in spite of a 0.1 percentage point growth in the labor force participation rate to 62.8%, while the employment rate had climbed by 0.3 percentage points to 60.5%
TL;DR
Metric
Value
1 Unemployment Rate (Nov 2023)
3.7%
2 Previous Month's Unemployment Rate
3.9%
3 Forecasted Unemployment Rate (Nov 2023)
3.9%
4 Total Unemployed Persons (Nov 2023)
6.291 million
5 Total Employed Persons (Nov 2023)
161.969 million
6 Labor Force Participation Rate (Nov 2023)
62.8%
7 Employment Rate (Nov 2023)
60.5%
The forecast for the Unemployment rate suggests a slight increase to 3.8% from the previous outcome of 3.7%.
The Unemployment rate is scheduled to be released on January5, 2024, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Unemployment Rate was announced on the 8th of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M5) below:
USD - ISM Services PMI
A key gauge of economic vitality, the unemployment rate, serves as a leading indicator reflecting the responsiveness of businesses to market dynamics. Among those in the know, purchasing managers stand as a critical source of real-time insight into a company's perspective on the economy. This critical economic indicator stems from a survey encompassing approximately 300 purchasing managers. These respondents are tasked with evaluating the relative state of business conditions across various dimensions, including employment, production, new orders, pricing trends, supplier delivery times, and inventory levels.
In November 2023, the ISM Services PMI displayed a noteworthy improvement, surging to 52.7, up from October's reading of 51.8, and surpassing the anticipated forecast of 52. This uptick signals a robust growth trajectory within the services sector. The impetus behind this positive shift can be attributed to accelerated expansions in both business activity/production, which climbed to 55.1 from 54.1, and employment, which increased to 50.7 from 50.2. New orders managed to sustain their strength, holding steady at 55.5, mirroring the previous month's performance, while inventories exhibited a remarkable rebound, soaring to 55.4 from 49.5.
Despite some moderation, price pressures remained significant, registering at 58.3, a slight dip from the previous 58.6. Notably, the backlog of orders decreased to 49.1 from 50.9, indicating a reduction in pending orders, while the Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 49.6 from 47.5, suggesting improved supplier delivery efficiency. Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, shed light on respondents' primary concerns, which revolve around issues such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. The data underscores the ongoing challenges posed by rising labor costs and labor shortages in the realm of employment within the services sector.
TL;DR
Metric
Value
1 ISM Services PMI (Nov 2023)
52.7
2 ISM Services PMI (Oct 2023)
51.8
3 Forecasted ISM Services PMI (Nov 2023)
52.0
4 Business Activity/Production (Nov 2023)
55.1
5 Employment (Nov 2023)
50.7
6 New Orders (Nov 2023)
55.5
7 Inventories (Nov 2023)
55.4
8 Price Pressures (Nov 2023)
58.3
9 Backlog of Orders (Nov 2023)
49.1
10 Supplier Deliveries Index (Nov 2023)
49.6
The projected ISM Services PMI anticipates a marginal uptick, rising from the previous reading of 52.7 to 52.8.
The ISM Services PMI for January 5, 2024, is scheduled to be unveiled at 3:00 PM GMT. This release is highly anticipated and will offer valuable insights into the current state of the services sector, with potential implications for the broader economic landscape.
The last time, the US ISM Services PMI was announced on the 5th of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:
Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
