6 billion secure to pdy for port and rail, page-171

Hi all - Long term holder and previous poster (couple of years ago). Have sat back and watched the last few months with interest and have to say the company has stirred up the media with the latest announcements for good of for bad. Not handled well at all but did put Padbury on the map in a pretty big way.

I suppose there should be some blame attributed here to the ASX for their incredibly poor oversight in terms of the announcement yesterday. How could they, the regulator of announcements to the market be so inept in allowing the announcement to be released in the form the market read it in?? Presume heads will role there...

I would have thought the ASX would have to approve the announcement in the form it was presented to them before release - which appears to have been the case. They don't appear to have sent it back for a re-write so the fact that the media and us, the market, have asked questions regarding transparency then forced the ASX to request more.

This has pushed Padbury farther into the spotlight and created a farcical situation where a very ill-informed media, who have done only limited research themselves are making statements and drawing conclusions whereas if they took the time to properly research things a lot of what is being said in the media could easily be shown in a different light - but then we are talking about people that don't care if they place our money at risk in order to sell stories.

I thought the announcement on Friday lacked enough substance to give me the ability to make informed decisions so sat on the sidelines yesterday. I was willing to wait to see what transpired after their return from Korea (BRR interview or the like) - probably should have offloaded some in the initial frenzy (finally back in the black) and may regret it in the future but my money and my risk...

If Padbury don't have a PR Firm and a bunch of Lawyers preparing their announcements I will fly to the moon so on that premise then there are a lot more people accountable than just a company that is trying to release their stranded resource and took a punt on the Yilgarn IP back when it appeared Mitsubishi's OP&R Contract was in trouble.

They gambled on the IP a few years ago and in my opinion it was a fair call for what they paid ($2.5M). They have not sat on their hands with it and moved their focus to developing a solution for the transport of their ore to market, reducing exploration costs so not to have to go to market for more cash. Salaries reduced as well and that in my opinion is a sign of a company that listened to its shareholders and tried to deliver the best value for them rather than just continuing to try and build a resource base that had no way of delivering it to market as others in the area have to their obvious detriment.

Hats off for that and they are now in a position that they have the tools (IP updated as per past announcements) to even negotiate a deal and they are the only ones that could conceivably hand over a plan for the port and rail without having to spend 1-2 years putting one together at a significant cost. Read somewhere on HC in the past that over $50M was spent on the original Yilgarn tender (2007 or 2008 from memory)and money has been spent since updating it regularly so what would that equate to in todays money and how long would it take??

The main focus of my attention will be on what happens next. Stokes has stated they will name names and the deal in its entirety on Tuesday. I will be looking for the following as an extension of my own limited research and will be making my own decisions on the companies short and long term attractiveness as a shareholder:

1) Who the funders are and who is backing them - credibility?
2) What is the result of the recent trip to Korea? - update definitely required there - presume they are back?
3) A detailed plan and timeline from Padburys perspective setting out major hurdles / key stages in development etc... and what negotiations remain with all key players
4) Some sort of Federal/State Government commentary or confirmation that the funding still exists at the levels announced previously under Mitsubishi as both have serious budget tightening measures in place
5) Whether Government funding is actually required to get the deal done - have not seen anything mentioned on whether the private parties are funded to the point they can complete the project without Government financial support

I certainly agree with some recent posters that this could be a takeover target and would not be unhappy if this is the case as I would suggest there would be a definite upside should a bid be forthcoming now that details of a potential Port and Rail deal is out there. $111M market cap is still well under true value in my opinion when the IP value, in ground resource (potentially no longer stranded) and the value of forward, progressed negotiations on a game changing deal are taken into consideration.

My thoughts only and not based on any knowledge of what is happening behind the scenes - I bet there has been a flurry of activity so will await the next announcement/s