AGO 0.00% 4.5¢ atlas iron limited

6 days to quarterly, page-24

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    They repaid $54m debt, but also $20m interest and principle, and $3m toWA govt. Anyone know if the latter two repeat each quarter?

    IMO they might surprise on the upside in the quarterly, and expect to see the debt gone before mid year... around April/May. They still have the other $80m to dip into, why wouldn't they use it to clear all debt well before mid year to encourage share price up above strike price of options.

    This would encourage option holders to convert before end June for AGOO and end July AGOOA, reinjecting a huge amount of extra cash for them to take forward into operations and expansion.

    I can't imagine them getting so close and not taking advantage of that opportunity, especially when still trading on such a low PE, and Iron Ore forecasts upgraded by 22% today from US$45 to US$55 longer term.

    Also, pretty sure they have already well qualified for entry into the ASX300 based on size, just waiting for the next time it is rebalanced at end of March. Have also been recent upgraded by S&P which should continue to improve with debt reduction and improving IO forecasts. This should also put a rocket under it from April.

    The wall at 5c is just stale debt holders. This is soaking nicely up to there until the quarterly probably next Wednesday. IMO will bunt up toward 6c on announcement, retrace with 5c new support, and then move up over 7.5c by April. Easily a 15c stock based on FA at current price IMO, and still 10c if they come back. New forecasts meet their break-even price. Only wild card is ongoing production, which i'm sure they can sort out with the options cash.

    I'm no MD/CEO but if I were thats what id do - i'd want to be on board at such a crucial and exciting time for the company, and I'd want to announce it!

    Good times ahead IMHO
 
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