I think that's true and the big four will claim the bulk of...

I think that's true and the big four will claim the bulk of these. The most difficult part of the equation is how far bad debts rise over this cycle. I suspect many investment loans on property will now just end up with borrowers working for the bank for the next couple of years while house prices go nowhere or backwards. There will be a few overextended now without an income but the Royal Commission probably mostly saved the banks from themselves through tighter lending requirements.

I expect a lot of small business loans are also secured against property so the banks have a fair degree of protection particularly with government support.

The really ugly place to be would be in the travel, entertainment, franchise or the discretionary retail space but how much real exposure would the banks have there?

My expectation is a 12 month recession, some of which is baked in but fortunately the country has a pool of superannuation assets to help in the recovery. Critics of super have long been foolish in my humble opinion.

While the Federal government and households have been going on a debt binge, super is the one area in which we've all been forced to actually put something aside.

As for Main Street US I think they're completely up against it. If you work outside the new economy there good luck to you.