LYC 2.86% $6.11 lynas rare earths limited

6 times� really?..., page-17

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    Hi Chi, exactly, I think GWM has a good business plan other than the capital. As you and I discussed a while back, some of these junior have raised cash and used it for extensive exploration. As a result, while they have drilling results and may have even moved from the resource to the reserve state. However, when they reach this point, they have burned their cash and must find a source for a cash infusion.

    With the sour economic environment right now, secondary's are a tough sell. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Preferred stock may raise capital through debenture and that technically won't result in dilution. Once again, with a small company, this is a tough sell right now.

    I watched a company with similar fundamentals go from $1.25 to 0 bid in less than a week. This was also a company in a nascent technology (solar farms) that really had no value other than some real estate in Arizona. I hated to see the beginning investors take a hit. (The company was PBEC and the rapid demise can be followed on the Yahoo (US) message board.)

    It only makes sense, if I was a potential investor in a company like GWM, I would recognize that there are very few current assets and significant negative shareholder equity. I would let the company go under to shake the current shareholders and then buy the assets at a tremendous discount.

    Therefore potential investors need to ask the question; Where is the working capital going to come from? A take off? A JV? A secondary or debenture? Will this cash infusion be made under duress resulting is a less than equitable deal?

    GWM (and Moly) are the closest thing to Lynas competition so this is my reason for discussing GWM. I might add that the financials of Moly are significantly better than most of the REEs. They have already raised most of the working capital they need.

    This is just my opinion...
 
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