My gut feel is 29-33 and we are only at the beginning. The logic...

  1. Osi
    15,897 Posts.
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    My gut feel is 29-33 and we are only at the beginning. The logic is simple enough.

    The 2 primary drivers are 1) demand for what we produce and 2) population growth.

    Demand for Australian products, produce, minerals and energy would normally recover fairly quickly (meaning a year or two) but there is this issue of private, corporate and likely sovereign debt defaults to consider. Recovery won't happen until the debt bombs have exploded and this will take longer.

    My expectation is that population growth in Australia will stagnate for a few years so the real estate bubble will lose air amd this will in turn depress domestic demand.

    Money printing and free money are another overlay with both positive and negative impacts. The impact levels will depend on how fast or slow the this money circulates.




 
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