There is no bottom yet - you could look at a multiple of book...

There is no bottom yet - you could look at a multiple of book value - lowest CBA has traded was circa 1.3x - puts you in the $52 territory - but on the other hand, the other x3 majors are trading at below book .....

. The only thing wrong with this thread was the call was a little early - this is not about a virus or a bump in oil prices - what you are looking at is a liquidity lock-up - but this time when rates are zip and government has little room to move. For the four majors banks rolling their international borrowings is now difficult - does it matter? Here's the numbers - about 20% of the loan book is funded offshore…. about half of this will need to be rolled within the next 2 1/2 years. This splits (roughly) 10% < 180 days / 10% < 360 days / 30% <2 1/2 yrs ....

or if you like - the view from Moody's

“A key issue for the Australian banking sector is the reliance on overseas funding… the banking system is highly concentrated, with the four major banks having large offshore funding exposures… Australia is susceptible to a dislocation of international funding markets or a sudden change in international sentiment. This would reduce access to, and increase the cost of, foreign funding. This would have broad economic consequences for Australia”.

OK - refinance domestically then....

Thursday NAB abandoned its $2bn hybrid issue. Macquarie cancelled its $500m issue. Pengana Private Equity Fund abandoned a $470m capital raising and Metrics Credit Partners handed $340m back after its $640m capital raising failed.

“Effectively, the window to raise capital is closed,” Geoff Wilson of Wilson Asset Management. Asked if he thought it would open again any time soon, : “No."

This is a liquidity problem...... and all assets are about to be revalued - including housing ..... the impact on the banks when this occurs... another thread another day..

There is no bottom.... not yet