The monthly chart shows what a precarious position CBA is in...

The monthly chart shows what a precarious position CBA is in right now. The October low found support at its 25 year trendline, but not with a convincing close. However we can at least draw some possible direction if targets are reached, since the current price falls are bound in a price channel: 

Bullish with a monthly close above $74. 

Bearish with a monthly close below $65

Anything in between should be taken as ranging for long long term investors. 

 

The bearish case is quite troubling.Theirs two near term targets that should be of concern are:

1. the 25 year trendline should hold price action. A monthly close belwo $65 would be troubling. 

2. I still hope for an Elliot wave count whose Wave 5 top has not yet been reached. I'm starting to doubt the validity of this theory. A close below $59 on the weekly chart woudl leave only one long term count open - the Wave 5 top was completed in Oct 2007, and we acr completing a long term ABC correction down below the GFC low. Usually id be the first one to dismiss the ridiculousness of this scenario, but the S&P500 is completing a multigenerational elliot wave bull market next year that started in the late1800s and should complete a wave 5 top prior to the end of 2019.