Ann: Results of Share Purchase Plan, page-124

@Jayman101 Only way we're getting to $3 anytime soon is if we're hyped up.

OR

Theoretically, once producing we're valued on profits, which industry average for metals & mining is about 20.4x EPS. We would need an EPS of about 15c to reach $3 SP. Based on SOI right now we need 227.6m of NPAT (net profit after tax) to reach that EPS. Only way we're getting there is with massively increased production and contracted spod prices of circa $1250/t.

If I update my model I made a while back with the current shares on issue, I've got a long term prediction of $3.49 SP. Based on

1. Average spod price received $1250/t
2. 40% increase in AISC to $607/6/t (increased to factor in costs associated with increasing production) (gives profit of $642.4/t)
3. Production increased 2.5x to 437,500t
4. Includes Fines by-product
5. Assumes all options and performance rights exercised.

I ran the figures based on the DFS alone and I got a valuation of $0.64, so given how outdated that is already in terms of spod price I believe that would be the minimum we'd see after our first year of production. (about 2 years from now). Hence why if you're comfortable taking on the few risks left, I'd say CXO offers a pretty good risk/return.