$66.32 price target - Evolution Capital initiation of coverage, page-80

I am very bullish and AVR/AMEUF is just about equal my largest individual stock position but I think we need to be realistic, especially considering that eventually each of us may be asked to vote on whether to accept a buyout offer or not.

The competition is not standing still. Edwards just started the pivotal trial for their next generation Sapien X4 valve, which features their upgraded anti-calcification treatment to enhance durability, has the low frame height and a "novel leaflet design", "leaflets matched for elasticity and thickness" (so still not a single piece) and a delivery system that provides "independent control of valve orientation". My guess is that their device makes it to market before the DurAVR because they've begun their trial already.

To justify our current market cap, we would only need to capture less than 0.5% of the US market. Anything more is upside, which is fantastic. But if a buyout is announced someday, we'll have to be realistic about what an equivalent market share is worth at that point vs future uncertainty because the competition will continue to innovate and has deep pockets to market their devices, so they aren't going to give up their turf without a fight. And to quote an old stock market adage, "Pigs get slaughtered", meaning things don't tend to turn out well for the greedy (I've got experience with that). There may come a day in the not too distant future when we'll have to weigh greed against reality if we are asked to decide on a buyout for a price in the billions but still much less than a possible large future market share.

Ewards Sapien X4 presentation:

https://d18mqtxkrsjgmh.cloudfront.net/public/2022-06/dede2c14-d132-4de6-a5e3-a5d4254553b3.pdf