I believe that we are heading for a massive deflationary depression, however I still hold a reasonable percentage of my portfolio in physical gold and silver. Gold and silver’s day will come, but I have no idea when that may be.
I think what some people are missing in the inflation/deflation debate is that the printing of money (by itself) has nothing to do with inflation, it really depend what you do with the money you print.
If you think about a margin loan and one day you get a margin call, you either need more cash to maintain your position or you sell some (or all) of your shares. If someone (US government) give you (US banks) more cash so that you are able to maintain your position is that inflationary? IMO it is deflationary as the banks will still need to sell assets to pay back the government at some time in the future. The “new” $ didn’t really ever get into the economy and therefore they couldn’t cause inflation.
The stimulus spending by governments worldwide is not even replacing the lost in investment from the private sector, so that will do little i the long run to the economy apart from cause large government debt into the future....leading to higher interest rates as cash become scares.